| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Lafayette | 26-7 | 1382.8 | +0.0 | 1382.8 | 33.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 20-34 | 1382.8 | -34.0 | 1348.8 | 47.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Liberty | 23-13 | 1348.8 | +48.4 | 1397.2 | 35.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Louisville | 17-40 | 1397.2 | -7.6 | 1389.6 | 11.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Ohio | 20-35 | 1389.6 | -13.3 | 1376.3 | 20.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Toledo | 28-23 | 1376.3 | +39.2 | 1415.5 | 46.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 6-27 | 1415.5 | -65.9 | 1349.6 | 71.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Kent State | 21-24 | 1349.6 | -69.3 | 1280.3 | 85.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Buffalo | 3-28 | 1280.3 | -44.3 | 1236.0 | 44.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 21-27 | 1236.0 | -38.1 | 1197.9 | 52.7% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | L | Akron | 16-19 | 1197.9 | -52.9 | 1145.0 | 54.5% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 45-14 | 1145.0 | +46.5 | 1191.5 | 53.2% |